A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 19612021 by Alan S. Blinder;

Author:Alan S. Blinder; [Blinder;, Alan S.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780691238388
Publisher: Princeton UP
Published: 2022-07-06T00:00:00+00:00

FIGURE 12.2. Annualized real GDP growth rates, quarterly, 1999–2003.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

When the stock market crashes as hard as it did in 2000–2001, it is not surprising if a recession follows—and it did. However, the 2001 recession was both short (only eight months long) and shallow, so shallow in fact that it disappears if you look only at annual data: real GDP was actually 1 percent higher in 2001 than in 2000. You have to peer closely at quarterly data to find two slightly negative quarters, 2001:1 (a −1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 2001:3 (−1.7%). Those two quarters are not even consecutive (figure 12.2). But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dating committee, which looks at a myriad of data series, not just GDP, decided to call it a recession anyway. I have long called it the recessionette.

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